Sizing up a 2025 adoption wave 

BlackRock’s BTC guidance gives us a sense of the buying wave that is possible

article-image

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan Permissionless 2022 by Ben Solomon

share

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.


We’ve heard the “increased adoption” answer plenty when asking industry players about 2025 crypto market expectations

Beyond retail, an array of big players particularly want in on BTC, and forecasted regulatory clarity will help fuel that shift, many believe.   

Though bitcoin adoption looks different for various investors, BlackRock’s guidance earlier this month gives us a sense of the buying wave that is possible.  

During a busy month in which Donald Trump nominated a new SEC chair and the Fed again cut rates, some might have missed the asset management giant’s December “investment perspectives” edition.

A couple weeks back, BlackRock execs wrote that the so-called Magnificent 7 tech stocks (in a portfolio of 60% stocks and 40% bonds) each, on average, account for roughly the same share of overall portfolio risk as a 1-2% BTC allocation.

“We think that’s a reasonable range for a bitcoin exposure,” they added.

Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz was among those who saw the guidance, reacting as follows:

Loading Tweet..

Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan noted in an X space a week or so later that the news went unnoticed by many.

It was sort of funny, Hougan added — “not just that people missed BlackRock saying you should add bitcoin to a portfolio, but all of a sudden we doubled the allocation.”

Hogan is alluding to the not-uncommon 1% allocation to bitcoin for those who have jumped into the space. A March survey found that of the financial advisers allocating to the space, 15% recommended to clients a 1% allocation. Of those saying they planned to allocate, 23% expected to start with a position of that size.  

Many investors Bitwise speaks with opt for a 5% allocation, Hougan added — a level he noted would often get you laughed at a year ago. 

“[It’s] not just 2% for a few people at a wealth manager; [it’s] 2% for the base rate for a portfolio across every exposure,” he noted of the BlackRock guidance. “I think it’s really significant, and if you think it’s the end of the story, you’re wrong.”

While US bitcoin ETFs have helped wealth managers wade into crypto, many still haven’t. Then there are the other interested institutions, whether it be companies, governments or pension funds.

Hougan said as bitcoin volatility goes down in a year or two, perhaps BlackRock will recommend a 5% allocation to BTC. 

BlackRock execs indeed note that wider adoption and trading could make BTC’s low correlation with equities more stable — trimming the asset’s contribution to portfolio risk and enabling investors to up their position in it. 

“Yet broad adoption could also mean bitcoin loses the structural catalyst for further sizable price rises,” they explain. “The case for a permanent holding may then be less clear-cut and investors may prefer to use it tactically to hedge against specific risks, similar to gold.”


Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:

Tags

Upcoming Events

Brooklyn, NY

SUN - MON, JUN. 22 - 23, 2025

Blockworks and Cracked Labs are teaming up for the third installment of the Permissionless Hackathon, happening June 22–23, 2025 in Brooklyn, NY. This is a 36-hour IRL builder sprint where developers, designers, and creatives ship real projects solving real problems across […]

Industry City | Brooklyn, NY

TUES - THURS, JUNE 24 - 26, 2025

Permissionless IV serves as the definitive gathering for crypto’s technical founders, developers, and builders to come together and create the future.If you’re ready to shape the future of crypto, Permissionless IV is where it happens.

Old Billingsgate

Mon - Wed, October 13 - 15, 2025

Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) will feature conversations between the builders, allocators, and legislators who will shape the trajectory of the digital asset ecosystem in the US and abroad.

recent research

Research

article-image

Arch Labs CEO told Blockworks that the team plans to launch a native token, but declined to give details

article-image

CEO Mike Silagadze tells Blockworks that the US is “open for business” and why its DeFi bank offering is the first of many

article-image

Doing one thing well and leaving everything else out is often what disruptive technologies do best

article-image

Why an analyst is kicking off COIN coverage with “buy” rating

article-image

“Bitcoin does not require a strong equity rally to move higher,” YouHodler markets chief Ruslan Lienkha said