Analysts warn we aren’t yet in ‘Fed put’ territory ahead of FOMC meeting

Cuts to interest rates unlikely as officials weigh labor market data and Trump tariffs take effect

March 14, 2025 04:26 pm

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell | Federalreserve/"_DSC1894." (CC license

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As Blockworks kicks off the Digital Asset Summit in New York, Fed officials will be gathering for their March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in Washington.

The central bank is overwhelmingly expected to hold interest rates as-is, continuing a pause to its rate-cutting schedule. After next week, the Fed won’t have another rate-setting meeting until May; odds of a cut then are only around 30%, CME data shows.

Betting on a “Trump put” at this point is, dare I say, wishful thinking. President Trump announced additional tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the administration is going to proceed with the duties even if it means pushing the economy into a recession.

A “Fed put” may not be entirely off the table, but it’s not coming anytime soon. Jerome Powell has made it clear that it will take substantial weakening in the labor market for central bankers to rethink the current pause.

HSBC analysts said in a note this week that the Fed isn’t budging until the data does. Of course, worse data means increased recessionary fears and lower asset prices. We’re between a rock and a hard place here, they added.

So it’s all a bit of a waiting game for now. The labor market looks okay, but tariffs could weigh on hiring and further anticipated DOGE layoffs have not yet been reflected in the data.

Instead of doom-scrolling next week, we recommend coming to DAS, where you can spiral and speculate in real life.

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