Crypto prediction markets favor Trump in tight race with Harris
Platforms like Polymarket and Drift’s BET show higher probabilities for a Trump victory, reflecting current market sentiments
Former President Donald Trump | lev radin/Shutterstock modified by Blockworks
This is a segment from the 0xResearch newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.
With a day to go before the US presidential election, prediction markets give an edge to Trump over Harris.
On the crypto side, Polymarket gives Trump roughly 58/42, and leads in open interest. Adding to the crypto landscape, Drift Protocol’s BET platform, built on the Solana blockchain, has emerged as a notable contender. BET touts a daily trading volume of $20 million and gives Trump a 61% chance as of 11 am ET today.
Betfair Exchange, a UK-based betting platform, reports total bets amounting to 136 million pounds (about $176 million).
In the US, Kalshi, a recently legalized event futures exchange, has seen over $12 million in user bets since its launch. PredictIt, which has the candidates neck and neck, maintains a significant user base, though specific open interest figures are not publicly disclosed.
Robinhood and Interactive Brokers joined Kalshi as betting options available to US citizens after the latter two won a ruling against the CFTC to allow election outcome trading. Interactive Brokers has reported over a million contracts traded since launching its market on Oct. 3. Robinhood’s open interest numbers aren’t readily available.
Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:
- Blockworks Daily: Unpacking crypto and the markets.
- Empire: Crypto news and analysis to start your day.
- Forward Guidance: The intersection of crypto, macro and policy.
- 0xResearch: Alpha directly in your inbox.
- Lightspeed: All things Solana.
- The Drop: Apps, games, memes and more.
- Supply Shock: Bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin.
