US equities dip as investors wait for trade deal updates, Mag 7 earnings
Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Apple are slated to report Q1 earnings this week, and we’re watching one especially closely
Tang Yan Song/Shutterstock and Adobe modified by Blockworks
This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.
After closing out last week in the green, stocks were back on the decline Monday as investors waited for more signs from the White House that trade deals are in the works.
The forces that moved equities last week were 1) Trump’s confirmation that he would not look to fire Fed Chair Powell and 2) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comments on the “unsustainable” situation with China. So far today, we just haven’t seen similar optimism.
Bessent, during a CNBC appearance this morning, put the ball in China’s court.
“I believe it’s up to China to de-escalate, because they sell 5x more to us than we sell to them,” he said. “These 125% and 145% tariffs are unsustainable.”
Unfortunately, I wouldn’t hold my breath. And I imagine traders feel the same way, given the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes lost as much as 1.4% and 1.7%, respectively, intraday Monday.
By 2 pm ET, both indexes had pared some losses but were still well below Friday’s close. The S&P 500 was trading down 0.5% at that time while the Nasdaq Composite had lost 0.8%.
Another big focus this week will be earnings. Four of the Magnificent 7 companies will report this week: Microsoft and Meta on Wednesday, followed by Apple and Amazon on Thursday. In terms of tariff impact on these names, Apple’s reliance on its Chinese supply chain is the most concerning.
I wrote about this a couple weeks ago, but I think it still applies, so I’ll say it again: If tariffs hit Apple, Trump is going to have a very big problem. My reasoning is that Apple is the largest company in the US, by market cap at least. If iPhones become 145% more expensive, it wouldn’t just anger the masses, it would hit Americans in their retirement accounts.
It took one week and a very concerning state of Treasury markets for Trump’s first pivot on his Liberation Day policies. Later, he issued what he said will be a “temporary” exemption for most of Apple’s products. Consider this my official bet that those exemptions will not be temporary.
All this to say, we will certainly be listening to Apple’s earnings call for any comments about its overseas operations. We’re also going to have an eye on the White House for any further tech tariff adjustments, especially should Apple shares take a big hit.
Alphabet reported last week, and execs said they were nervous about Trump ending the “de minimis” imports exemption that applies to goods valued at less than $800. The impact to the Google parent company here is ad spend. If retailers have to pay more to get their products, their marketing budgets shrink (so the logic goes).
Tesla, another Mag 7 that reported last week, also admitted that higher tariffs are bad. Still, investors were happy enough to hear that CEO Elon Musk will be reducing his role at DOGE to rally shares.
Keep an eye on your inbox as we follow this story. It’s sure to be a busy week.
Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:
- Blockworks Daily: Unpacking crypto and the markets.
- Empire: Crypto news and analysis to start your day.
- Forward Guidance: The intersection of crypto, macro and policy.
- 0xResearch: Alpha directly in your inbox.
- Lightspeed: All things Solana.
- The Drop: Apps, games, memes and more.
- Supply Shock: Bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin.
