Bitget Token

Casey Wagner

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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It’s Election Day Eve! I certainly don’t envy the campaign workers (or the candidates) for that matter, during these crucial final hours.



The Blockworks news team will be working late tomorrow providing you with all the updates on the most influential races and market moves. But for now, here’s a quick preview of a key Senate race I’ve been following closely.&nbsp;



Senator Sherrod Brown will face off against Republican challenger Bernie Moreno, who is vying for his US Senate seat.&nbsp;



Brown, the current chair of the Senate Banking Committee, has largely been seen by the crypto industry as an <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/on-the-margin-newsletter-harris-team-crypto">adversary</a>. He holds a central position in deciding which pieces of legislation make it to committees for markup and to the floor for a vote, and he hasn’t exactly been pushing for crypto-focused bills. Brown was also not one of the 12 Democratic Senators who voted to overturn the SEC’s SAB 121 bill.&nbsp;



Moreno, a car salesman, captured the industry’s attention when he went up against a key member of the so-called “anti-crypto army.” Plus, he’s made crypto a central part of his messaging on the campaign trail, vowing to block a CBDC and fight against those looking to “destroy crypto.”&nbsp;



Defend American Jobs, a Fairshake-associated crypto super PAC, has spent more than $19 million supporting Moreno through the end of August, federal <a href="https://www.fec.gov/data/committee/C00836221/?tab=spending">filings</a> show. 



Now, as the race heads into the eleventh hour, things are looking tight. As of Nov. 1, Brown currently leads by just <a href="https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2024/ohio/brown-vs-moreno">0.3%</a> in an average of national polls.



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Tomorrow will decide major Senate race in US crypto’s election efforts

Ben Strack

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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Election Day is tomorrow. Polls in recent days show the race remains very tight.&nbsp;



Knowing whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will be the next US president is expected to impact crypto markets in some way, though exactly how is something we won’t know until the next few days (at least) play out.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Let’s rewind to May for a moment, when a couple things grabbed the crypto industry’s attention: The Trump campaign started <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/donald-trump-accepts-crypto-donations-2024-election">accepting crypto donations</a> and President Joe Biden <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/house-fails-to-override-anti-sab121-veto">vetoed</a> a resolution (deemed to be pro-crypto) that would have <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/house-passes-act-fit21-with-bipartisan-support">invalidated</a> the SEC’s SAB 121.&nbsp;&nbsp;



That month, Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/mike-novogratz-crypto-us-election">likened</a> crypto opposition (more prevalent on the Democratic side) to criticizing dogs — noting the tens of millions of Americans that own each.&nbsp;



Later, Trump spoke explicitly about his support for crypto — at a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/on-the-margin-newsletter-trump-bitcoin-mining-meeting">meeting</a> with bitcoin mining executives in June and then at the Bitcoin 2024 conference the following month. Among his <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/donald-trump-speaks-bitcoin-2024">promises</a> at the latter event in Nashville included firing SEC Chair Gary Gensler and stopping government sales of seized bitcoin. Also in July, the GOP mentioned ending the “unlawful” crackdown on crypto in its party platform.



Harris has made a few comments in <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/09/26/crypto-kamala-harris-bitcoin/">support</a> of emerging technologies (including crypto) and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/forward-guidance-newsletter-kamala-harris-crypto-silence">pledged</a> to bolster Black men’s rights to safely invest in crypto — but has not shared many details. Galaxy research head Alex Thorn has said he expects Harris to be <a href="https://x.com/intangiblecoins/status/1845845163588907486">more supportive</a> of crypto than Biden has been, but less favorable to the industry than Trump.



Crypto was <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/2024-elections-crypto-policy-outlook">not mentioned</a> in the Harris/Trump or Tim Walz/JD Vance debates. And Harris has not shared what she would do about Gensler — a point Blockchain Association’s Ron Hammond said industry participants <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-06/kamala-harris-donors-privately-want-ftc-s-lina-khan-sec-s-gary-gensler-removed">wanted more clarity</a> on from her.



Coinbase chief policy officer Faryar Shirzad <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/harris-trump-crypto-stances-coinbase">gave Harris credit</a> for engaging with the crypto community, but lauded Trump’s more comprehensive remarks on the topic.&nbsp;&nbsp;



While the latest New York Times <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president.html">poll</a> was largely unchanged from previous ones (national polling average shows Harris leading 49% to 48%, as of Monday morning), Trump’s big lead (according to Polymarket odds) has <a href="https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1730768185481">shrunk</a> from several days ago.



Bitcoin was trading below $69,000 on Monday morning, down from the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/btc-price-movements-etf-flows-surge">$73,000-plus level</a> it reached last week.&nbsp;



Andre Dragosch, head of Bitwise’s European research, said in a note that while bitcoin’s correlation to US presidential election odds have increased lately, its “macro correlations” to traditional assets (like US stocks or gold) remain higher.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXc5M3NC2jbdr9rZpO0lJSwLahNlgnS2o0aMCJeZRQUT2uLLcGVK9kpkvhuFJvxZLT2Z2WNtsgRys2OHsGDDKrXZPNn8bzrmd5D4ja36dYoozhpIZk0DslB1WmMFEDkxYnWJ0c4mxgrhTz1XJCikFc3e60de?key=cXCJZdMpy9bIyUA6ydef-FrN" alt=""/></figure>



Bitwise estimates show, if the election was held today, that a Trump victory would boost bitcoin’s price by 10.1% (sending it to an all-time high), while a Harris win would spur a 9.8% decline for the asset.



Swan Bitcoin managing director John Haar is among those expecting that the election may only have a short-term impact on crypto markets.



“In the medium and longer term, we believe that the outcome of this presidential race does not materially alter the trends supporting bitcoin, which include continued government deficit spending, expansive Fed monetary policy and ongoing bitcoin adoption,” he said.



Many have reminded us that what politicians say they’ll do, and what they actually do, can differ materially. So it’s safe to say the election results will represent a new chapter to this evolving story, but not the end.



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Weighing the Harris/Trump crypto impact on Election Eve 

Jack Kubinec

This is a segment from the Lightspeed newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">subscribe</a>.



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The Solana-based confidential computing startup Arcium has acquired one of its Web2 competitors in Inpher, the team told Lightspeed exclusively.



As part of the deal, Arcium will take over Inpher’s core team and technology. The terms were not disclosed. The crypto startup’s acquisition of a non-crypto startup comes shortly after <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/stripe-bridge-acquisition-stablecoin-infrastructure">Stripe’s acquisition</a> of the stablecoin platform Bridge raised hopes that the market for mergers and acquisitions could be <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/empire-newsletter-dydx-founder-comeback">heating up</a> in crypto.&nbsp;



Arcium started as a Solana privacy protocol named Elusiv before rebranding to a generalized confidential computing startup. In May, the team <a href="https://x.com/ArciumHQ/status/1788557786537689447">announced</a> a $5.5 million strategic funding round led by Greenfield Capital with the pledge to help developers create “fully confidential applications onchain.” Arcium is yet to launch.&nbsp;



During a conversation at a coffee shop in Manhattan, I recently asked the company’s CEO Yannik Schrade why the world needs confidential computing.



“Want to tell me your social security number? No?” he asked in response. He added that sensitive data is often stored on the internet in an encrypted format, but when information is converted, it needs to be decrypted, which leads to a “single point of failure” that could expose sensitive information. Schrade added that use cases like collaborative AI training could use confidential computing to mitigate the risk of data breaches.&nbsp;



Schrade called the Inpher team a research-driven “powerhouse” that has made important contributions to cryptography. “Now we have a very important set of PhDs in the Solana ecosystem,” Schrade said.&nbsp;



Inpher raised a total of $14 million since 2016, with backers including JPMorgan and the Amazon Alexa Fund, <a href="https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/inpher-io/company_financials">according</a> to Crunchbase. It had lately begun <a href="https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/inphers-enterprise-ready-securai-performantly-protects-llms-with-nvidia-confidential-computing-302138584.html">marketing</a> itself as a service for interacting with AI privately and securely.



Confidentiality is a core component of crypto, which can theoretically serve as a means by which multiple parties can transact or collaborate without needing to trust each other. But so far, some of the more futuristic possible applications for technology like zero-knowledge proofs — which can verify a message is true without revealing its contents — are yet to be realized.



Schrade poked a nicotine pouch into his lip before explaining his approach:



“We&#8217;re not just doing some abstract research papers that at the end of the day maybe nobody would use, but instead we are making practical technology, practical research and combining that with interfaces that developers can just use without having to learn any new paradigms.”



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Solana-based confidential computing startup acquires Web2 competitor

Macauley Peterson

This is a segment from the 0xResearch newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/research">subscribe</a>.



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With a day to go before the US presidential election, prediction markets give an edge to Trump over Harris.&nbsp;



On the crypto side, <a href="https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024/will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-us-presidential-election?tid=1730734890176">Polymarket</a> gives Trump roughly 58/42, and leads in open interest. Adding to the crypto landscape, Drift Protocol&#8217;s <a href="https://app.drift.trade/bet">BET platform</a>, built on the Solana blockchain, has emerged as a notable contender. BET touts a daily trading volume of $20 million and gives Trump a 61% chance as of 11 am ET today.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfdM7wjI-h65LDjzDDNaK1M9e30Ji4TjcO4C2MXZY5aNJy7mLEzmCMu3kHBddrPUbP3cxLwVWWChNXVwUPkj8ntxjRK4uUXYXdr5vzTu78PsIbgQJxCT8ClA944pjnReSGEpuJ8Gk69WgJxITgpeB2GxlnC?key=bSpzHIS5pf4Y_NFngTYvnwVZ" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Polymarket all-time highs in open interest. Source: <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/analytics/polymarket">Blockworks Research</a></figcaption></figure>



<a href="https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.176878927">Betfair Exchange</a>, a UK-based betting platform, reports total bets amounting to 136 million pounds (about $176 million).



In the US, <a href="https://kalshi.com/markets/pres/presidential-elections">Kalshi</a>, a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/kalshi-election-markets-cftc">recently legalized</a> event futures exchange, has seen over $12 million in user bets since its launch. <a href="https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election">PredictIt</a>, which has the candidates neck and neck, maintains a significant user base, though specific open interest figures are not publicly disclosed.



<a href="https://newsroom.aboutrobinhood.com/introducing-the-presidential-election-market/">Robinhood</a> and <a href="https://forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com/eventtrader/#/market-details?id=7331319912025010701&amp;detail=contract_details">Interactive Brokers</a> joined Kalshi as betting options available to US citizens after the latter two won a ruling against the CFTC to allow election outcome trading. Interactive Brokers has reported over a million contracts traded since launching its market on Oct. 3. Robinhood’s open interest numbers aren&#8217;t readily available.



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Crypto prediction markets favor Trump in tight race with Harris

Donovan Choy

This is a segment from the 0xResearch newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/research">subscribe</a>.



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The idea of a decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) is kind of incredible, when you really think about it.



What is a DAO?



A DAO is like a private company that is perfectly okay with hundreds of token (equity) holders debating publicly on an open forum about product and organizational strategy.&nbsp;



A private company where the core security underlying the company’s product (smart contracts) are fully viewable, where all the data you need to <a href="https://x.com/PrimordialAA/status/1848393812777066640">write</a> a scathing data analysis on a company you don’t like is readily available.



In the non-Web3 world, markets would kill to have any clue as to what their competitors are thinking of launching, let alone detailed forum discussions of how that conversation is taking shape. Having all that information out in the open would invite endless media and regulatory scrutiny, taking precious time away from actually building to fend off annoying lines of inquiry.



These are handicaps that no startup wants. And yet in Web3, <a href="https://deepdao.io">$21.4 billion</a> of value rests on these norms. In Web3, it’s par for the course.



Of course, most DAOs are actually only partially decentralized.



When Uniswap announced its plans <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/0xresearch-newsletter-uniswap-layer-2">around Unichain</a> last month, Stanford Blockchain Club’s head of governance Billy Gao <a href="https://x.com/__billygao/status/1847776831782691226">said</a> the announcement left most DAO delegates “in the dark,” and excluded them via their lack of “a voice at any stage of the process — whether through forums, private discussions or any other means.”



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">1/ <a href="https://twitter.com/Uniswap?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Uniswap</a>’s sudden launch of <a href="https://twitter.com/unichain?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@unichain</a> has raised serious questions about DAO governance and caught many of us off guard. Is this a bold leap forward for DeFi, or a worrying step back for decentralization? Here’s our breakdown of what unfolded, why it matters, and what’s next.&mdash; Billy Gao (@__billygao) <a href="https://twitter.com/__billygao/status/1847776831782691226?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 19, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



It’s not just Uniswap either. Optimism DAO’s governance contracts are not controlled by its tokenholders, so voting with OP largely serves as an informal signal to the Optimism Foundation (<a href="https://gov.optimism.io/t/accelerated-decentralization-proposal-for-optimism/8875">for now</a>).



And it’s widely known that most DAO treasuries or smart contracts are still controlled by a few trusted stakeholders via a multisig wallet.



So when we tout DAOs as decentralized autonomous organizations, in truth, there are many shades of gray within that spectrum of decentralization. The devil’s in the details.



When I asked Tally founder and CEO Dennison Bertram about it, he begrudgingly agreed that DAOs have a ways to go regarding decentralization, but also that partial transparency is still better than complete opaqueness, which would be “much more dangerous.”



Bertram pointed to how Twitter/X under Elon Musk could unilaterally turn off its API, or how Facebook choked off the wildly popular FarmVille game by Zynga from its platform.



Yet, despite the many shortcomings around DAOs, the real silver lining — I think — is the industry’s overarching commitment to the values of decentralization, which to me seems wildly underrated.



DAOs can hand-wave and virtue signal about decentralizing all they like, but the fact that they operate in an industry where “decentralization” is still held up as a beloved virtue is what allows the crypto industry to call out and question the centralization vectors that DAOs are still riddled with.



That informal institution has slowly been eroded and will only continue to do so as crypto continues to go “mainstream.” Cherish it while it still lasts.



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The DAO dilemma: Striving for decentralization

Katherine Ross

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">subscribe</a>.



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It’s been a minute since we checked in on the activity over in the tokenized fund space.&nbsp;



Late Friday, UBS — the Swiss bank with $5.7 trillion in assets under management — announced that it was launching uMINT, or the UBS USD Investment Fund built on Ethereum.&nbsp;



“Tokenholders can now access UBS Asset Management’s institutional grade cash management solutions underpinned by high quality money market instruments based on a conservative, risk-managed framework,” the press release said. So it’s unfortunately a bit unclear what financial instruments will make up the fund, whereas other popular funds right now hold US Treasurys. 



To give you some perspective: roughly $2.4 billion of total real-world asset value is US Treasury debt, with commodities coming in second at $1.1 billion, per RWA.xyz data. To be clear, the below chart isn’t including Treasurys held by stablecoin issuers such as Circle and Tether.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXf6z_xGz58q-2cJYEZgie3S3bRPVQUlLJKnq_9z4xJqCQR5tOAn8J1XLTDAm_upZh3T3qffiTtBHe293RYepZ4t3i6EerXrET6hU7ca67RRXSrrNzF2G_TJlltHr4nvEo2V3Dz1yw?key=ZYRulavpaLJ7XPpr2UcjL1Tg" alt=""/></figure>



The co-head of UBS Asset Management APAC, Thomas Kaegi, acknowledged the “growing investor appetite” in the space. Right now, three firms: BlackRock through its Securitize partnership, Franklin Templeton and Ondo dominate the tokenized fund space.&nbsp;



While BlackRock’s BUIDL and Franklin’s funds might be some of the most well-known, it’s actually Ondo that holds the biggest market cap at $655. Securitize is about $100 million shy, coming in at $533 million (which is BUIDL’s market cap). Franklin Templeton has a market cap of roughly $408 million.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXcpO9ZBngQkJwZ-CLqCxrvmwmN7AjNLJCm8ylvuQoErjBPO43rxfcox1VqVErpBEglFn3cbmx50mo8f3wWejDcA4zvmUornARk74uPr-clwK-P6RjXVnfrJ5t0cT0BeuYIsQhqwZA?key=ZYRulavpaLJ7XPpr2UcjL1Tg" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A look at the biggest tokenized treasury funds</figcaption></figure>



UBS itself acknowledged that this launch is a sign that the firm is serious about the potential of tokenization, which isn’t a surprise given that it’s a participant in the Project Guardian initiative (the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s tokenization pilot) and has <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/boc-investment-arm-tokenized-notes">previously partnered</a> to issue tokenized notes in China.



Outside of UBS, it’s worth noting that Securitize surpassed $1 billion in tokenized RWA onchain last week. As I noted above, the RWA platform has seen success through BlackRock’s tokenized fund. And Franklin Templeton launched its OnChain US Government Money Market Fund on Base.&nbsp;



Tokenization may not be one of the sexiest crypto topics, but there certainly is a lot of movement happening in the space.



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Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Subscribe to the Empire newsletter</a>.



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‘Growing investor appetite’ in tokenized fund space: UBS

David Canellis

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">subscribe</a>.



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<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/gensler-crypto-twitter-ratio">Gary Gensler</a>. The IMF and the World Economic Forum. Inflation.



If crypto were Arya Stark from Game of Thrones, these boogeymen would high up on her death list.



Why not pour fuel on the fire?&nbsp;



Despite popular belief, bitcoin has not actually returned to its all-time high set in November 2021, all because of inflation.&nbsp;



What was a bitcoin all-time high of $68,998 back then would be the equivalent of $77,975 in today’s money.&nbsp;



That’s 13% cumulative inflation across nearly three years, per US consumer price index data.



So, after adjusting for inflation, bitcoin still needs to rally by more than $9,100 to break that price record — a 14% jump.&nbsp;



Before adjusting for inflation, bitcoin is only $4,900 away, or 6.7%.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXd-yFNZPzir4s_9FZEZACr2it6T8wcS1jMB2ZZ3rsNkaMAomagQMYBCwxdq2Aw9bFreTQwyuSgrePXV3M8ZEKsutbZ2uGcXQYrwgvZhjEeDkqegyCekqoDO2dhR9Zzja5KEOcf1iQ?key=ZYRulavpaLJ7XPpr2UcjL1Tg" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">The purple area shows the conventional all-time high while the blue area accounts for inflation since that peak</figcaption></figure>



Inflation never stops, so bitcoin’s inflation-adjusted all-time high continues to rise as time goes on.&nbsp;



When bitcoin hit its local top in March, that figure was $76,744, which means it really stopped about 4% short when it peaked at $73,738.&nbsp;



The same goes for ether and solana. ETH at $2,490 is actually a gut-wrenching 55% below its current inflation-adjusted price record of $5,513.&nbsp;



ETH had to have reached $5,426 to break an all-time high in March. So, when it hit $4,090, that was actually 22% below the mark, rather than 14%.



Right now, SOL is otherwise 44% below its own adjusted all-time high of $294, and was 28% below in March.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXceFgbHpSe9SRBk5CGEni4BU4i17fYy0Zqhbg5exoBCpHFEjNtLWxkBkswcQsOVLHSC95dsRnSn1pfgh-zGMV7HcOpZlwr5oSpiQ5vJms6_zhU4tHd-VbcFaUo_jCuNMB-yR3e-sw?key=ZYRulavpaLJ7XPpr2UcjL1Tg" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Inflation is down to 2.4% but it can never undo what has been</figcaption></figure>



What does it all mean? It’s unlikely that crypto will break from the rest of the finance world and consider only inflation-adjusted prices as the true value of assets.&nbsp;



Although, there is an argument to do so during periods of high inflation, as was the case in the years during and after the worst of the pandemic.



More critically, it’s just further proof that inflation really sucks the fun out of everything — bitcoin all-time highs included.



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Bitcoin is further away from all-time high than you think

‘Twas the week before the US presidential election, when all throughout crypto, deals were announced.&nbsp;



Okay, that kind of worked. And since we’re officially past Halloween, I get to whip out my Christmas references.&nbsp;



Anyway, this week saw plenty of funding announcements, including a $30 million raise from DePIN Glow.&nbsp;



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/empire-newsletter-depin-public-goods">DePIN: A recipe for public goods on public goods</a>



The $30 million sum was broken into two investments: A round, co-led by Framework Ventures and Union Square Ventures that topped $6.5 million, and a $23.5 million solar investment.&nbsp;



“The capital raised will be used to optimize Glow’s blockchain protocol so that it can handle future investments at a large scale, as well as facilitate the immediate onboarding of a new 4 MW solar farm in Rajasthan, India, bringing the total capacity installed on Glow in the last month to over 5.3 MW,” a press release said.



Glow is a solar infrastructure protocol on <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/ethereum">Ethereum</a>. It awards GLW tokens to solar farms in return for their electricity production.&nbsp;



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/lightspeed-newsletter-helium-solar-power">Helium eyes energy sector with new solar power play</a>



“From our perspective, we think that Glow’s unique incentive designs, combined with real and meaningful market demand for their clean energy and solar energy products, makes it a trailblazer in the crypto space. So long as stakeholder interest in carbon neutrality continues, we think Glow could see massive adoption across multiple markets,” Framework’s Michael Anderson said.&nbsp;



But Glow isn’t the only shiny, big raise on the block this week.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">1/ We&#39;re excited to announce our $21M fundraise led by <a href="https://twitter.com/HaunVentures?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@HaunVentures</a> to accelerate the development of verifiable finance. This round includes continuing support from our previous investors <a href="https://twitter.com/ElectricCapital?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ElectricCapital</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/aeyakovenko?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@aeyakovenko</a>, and <a href="https://twitter.com/paradigm?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@paradigm</a>. <a href="https://t.co/i8r4H0QkFB">pic.twitter.com/i8r4H0QkFB</a>&mdash; Ellipsis Labs (@ellipsis_labs) <a href="https://twitter.com/ellipsis_labs/status/1852030745780396209?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 31, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Ellipsis Labs raised $21 million in a round led by Haun Ventures.&nbsp;



The raise will help launch Atlas, which is a blockchain “purpose-built for verifiable finance.” Back in April, Ellipsis announced a Series A raise of $20 million, which was led by Paradigm.&nbsp;



Blockworks co-founders Jason Yanowitz and Michael Ippolito were both angel investors in the round.&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Other notable rounds:</h2>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Nillion <a href="https://x.com/nillionnetwork/status/1851615323163689421">announced</a> a $23 million round, bringing its total funding to $50 million. The round was led by Hack VC, with participation from GSR and HashKey.</li>



<li>Citrea <a href="https://x.com/citrea_xyz/status/1851994301514825902">said</a> it raised $14 million in a Series A led by Founders Fund. Mirana, Maven11 also participated.</li>



<li>Spire <a href="https://x.com/Spire_Labs/status/1851987498215608454">announced</a> a $7 million raise in a round led by Anagram and Maven11. A16z Crypto CSX, and Bankless also participated. </li>



<li>Nitro Labs <a href="https://x.com/Terminaxyz/status/1851691841793728550">said</a> it raised $4 million in a seed round led by Lemiscap. Other participants include Borderless, Race Capital, among others.</li>
</ul>



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Funding Roundup: Glow, Nillion and Ellipsis all announce big raises 

Web3 gaming firm Immutable on Friday announced it had received a Wells notice from the US Securities and Exchange Commission, indicating that the regulator may soon pursue an enforcement action against the company.&nbsp;



The SEC has “non-specifically” alleged Immutable has violated securities laws and misrepresented itself to users, Immutable wrote in a <a href="https://www.immutable.com/blog/defending-digital-ownership-in-gaming">statement</a>.&nbsp;



“In our very first interaction with the SEC, we were told a Wells notice would be issued to the company within the week. We then received it within hours,” the statement added.&nbsp;



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/forward-guidance-newsletter-wells-notice">SOL, ADA listed in Crypto.com Wells notice</a>



While the <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/sec">SEC</a> was vague in the nature of its investigation, Immutable said, executives presume the securities regulator is targeting the company’s IMX token, which were privately sold in 2021. Following the announcement, IMX was trading more than 13% lower on Friday at 12 pm ET.&nbsp;



<a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/immutable">Immutable</a>’s message to regulators?&nbsp;



“Engage with the industry. Create clear and fit-for-purpose industry rules and regulatory guidelines, and we will follow them.”&nbsp;



The news comes as other crypto companies report being on the SEC’s radar. NFT marketplace OpenSea in April <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-issues-wells-notice-opensea-nfts">received a Wells notice</a> from the regulator, alleging NFTs sold on the platform are classified as securities.&nbsp;



Last month, Crypto.com <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-dot-com-sec-wells">filed a suit against the SEC</a> after it said it received a Wells notice over the summer. The exchange said the preemptive countersuit was intended to “protect the future of the crypto industry in the US.”&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">An interesting stat:&nbsp;</h2>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>DeFi and crypto adoption is growing in Eastern Europe, a new <a href="https://www.chainalysis.com/blog/2024-eastern-europe-crypto-adoption/">report</a> from Chainalysis shows. The region received over $499 billion worth of cryptocurrency between July 2023 and June 2024, accounting for 11% of the total global share. </li>
</ul>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Also of note:&nbsp;</h2>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Bridge, which <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/stripe-bridge-acquisition-stablecoin-infrastructure">Stripe is acquiring for $1.1 billion</a>, announced Friday that it bought Web3 wallet infrastructure company Triangle for an undisclosed amount. </li>



<li>Coinbase and Visa <a href="https://usa.visa.com/about-visa/newsroom/press-releases.releaseId.20931.html">announced</a> on Tuesday a partnership to integrate Visa Direct on the crypto exchange, allowing users to make deposits via Visa debit cards. </li>
</ul>



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Web3 Watch: SEC sets its sights on gaming 

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



US equities opened higher Friday morning, clawing back some of Thursday’s losses that saw the Nasdaq Composite and S&amp;P 500 indexes drop 1.8% and 1.2%, respectively.&nbsp;



The selloff was led by tech stocks, triggered by disappointing outlooks from giants Meta and Microsoft, both of which reported after the close yesterday.&nbsp;



Both Meta and Microsoft beat expectations on some earnings metrics, but you wouldn’t know that looking at the share prices. Analysts attribute Thursday’s drops (-4% for Microsoft and -3% for Meta during after hours trading) to disappointing projections from both companies.&nbsp;



Microsoft execs estimate between $68.1 billion and $69.1 billion in revenue for Q4, missing Wall Street’s forecast of $69.83 billion. The tech giant anticipates its cloud computing platform, which saw a 33% increase in quarter-over-quarter revenue during Q3, will slow during the final months of this year.&nbsp;



Meta similarly beat on earnings per share and revenue for the third quarter, but execs say its spending spree is going to continue through the end of 2024. They calculate capital expenditures for the year to come in between $38 billion and $40 billion. This is up from the range given during the company’s last quarterly earnings report. Meta is also forecasting a “significant” increase in <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/ai-boom-elon-musk-startup-valuation">AI-related</a> infrastructure expenses in 2025.&nbsp;



Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, said it wasn’t just Big Tech weighing on equities Thursday. Earnings across the board were disappointing (looking at you, Uber, Ebay and Intercontinental Exchange), plus economic data looks like we may see higher rates for a more sustained period of time.



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Major earnings week weighs on tech stocks 

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



The historic trend of BTC rising in October ended up occurring again despite a rocky first half of the month and a rough final day. All said and done, the asset’s price rose nearly 11% during the month.



BTC started October around the $64,000 mark and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/btc-uptober-price-gains">breached $66,000</a> a couple weeks in before breaching $73,000 earlier this week. Some attributed the run to heavy <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/btc-price-movements-etf-flows-surge">bitcoin ETF inflows</a> and a possible Donald Trump victory as some polls (and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/forward-guidance-newsletter-polymarket-election-manipulation">betting markets</a>) swung in his favor.



On Halloween though, bitcoin dipped a few percentage points, trading between $69,000 and $70,000 for much of the day.&nbsp;



Historically, positive returns have been a bit more of a toss-up during the year’s 11th month, with four of the last six Novembers in the red, Coinglass data shows.&nbsp;



Still, November has the highest average monthly return for BTC — thanks to 449% growth during the month in 2013. The cryptocurrency also notched returns of 53% and 43% in November 2017 and November 2020, respectively.&nbsp;&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdCvXRGZiFwtnENTBf4yVhkOHou6Oc4q5ArhnMxOKhqKBxlcwipg8tKVgELdbAmCl7jKxrP3AQHbSERdiVCKe-InA7J6cBhyXeKoJizlwHZ1m4p1CHhHU7MeahlKQd2-xLWGGzpTC7z6XOlyvi00wzJTWhu?key=rFHwHchOfUT_ArWDnp6lg6ld" alt=""/></figure>



The macroeconomic context globally is one of central banks turning toward monetary loosening, noted OTC Capital CEO Brian Dixon — a favorable backdrop for BTC.



“A lot of the upwards price action seems to have been front-run earlier this year because of the approval and launch of the bitcoin ETFs, and this was followed by months and months of sideways action,” Dixon told Blockworks. “Now, however, after a period of prolonged consolidation, I believe we may appear to be headed toward a major and sustained breakout.”



But a potential recession — should the Fed be unable to achieve a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/gdp-estimates-suggest-soft-landing">soft landing</a> — could disrupt the upward trend bitcoin has generally maintained since early 2023, according to YouHodler chief of markets Ruslan Lienkha.&nbsp;



“The psychological level of around $80,000 may act as a point where investors start to take profits, potentially introducing some selling pressure,” he added.



Demand for bitcoin ETFs was ample in October, with <a href="https://farside.co.uk/bitcoin-etf-flow-all-data/">inflows</a> totaling $5.4 billion during the month. This was a substantial jump from September, during which nearly $1.3 billion worth of assets entered the fund segment.&nbsp;



Overall, October marked the second-best flow month for the category — falling shy of the nearly $6.1 billion seen in February.



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table class="has-fixed-layout"><tbody><tr><td>Month</td><td>Net Flows (millions $)</td></tr><tr><td>January</td><td>+1,460</td></tr><tr><td>February</td><td>+6,063</td></tr><tr><td>March</td><td>+4,637</td></tr><tr><td>April</td><td>-345</td></tr><tr><td>May</td><td>+2,073</td></tr><tr><td>June</td><td>+667</td></tr><tr><td>July</td><td>+3,169</td></tr><tr><td>August</td><td>-92</td></tr><tr><td>September </td><td>+1,263</td></tr><tr><td>October</td><td>+5,415</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



You already know about some of the possible US <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-price-predictions-election">election implications</a> on the crypto market, and we’ll talk more about that on Monday. But maybe it’s best not to think about that all weekend.



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After ‘Uptober’ plays out, what could we see in November?

Michael McSweeney

This is a segment from the Lightspeed newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">subscribe</a>.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



This week saw a new —&nbsp;though perhaps unsurprising — entrant in the race to offer up a new SOL vehicle to would-be institutional investors.



Canary Capital Group’s Wednesday filing for a spot SOL ETF with the SEC <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2041869/000199937124014193/solana-s1_103024.htm">comes</a> a few months after VanEck kicked off the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/vaneck-files-for-solana-etf">process</a> with a filing of its own.&nbsp;



The fresh filing is a cause for celebration, certainly —&nbsp;especially if you’re of the opinion/hope that next week’s election will usher in a far less, shall we say, <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-gary-gensler-on-eth-status-commodity">Gensler-ish</a> take on US securities oversight. Sitting SEC commissioners on the Republican side are of the view that investors, not regulators, should judge the merits of such products, and in the event that Donald Trump prevails, Chair Gary Gensler may find himself <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/donald-trump-speaks-bitcoin-2024">out of a job</a> sooner than later.



Barring a fundamental sea change, the SEC’s ongoing contention that SOL is a security <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/lightspeed-newsletter-mango-markets-sol">may prove</a> a significant roadblock. Any attempt to read the spilled tea leaves is tricky in an election year, but under Gensler, SOL sort of seems to be a hill the agency’s court lawyers are willing to die on. At the same time, the fact that the SEC is trying to <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-wrong-about-crypto-asset-securities">unwind its language</a> around so-called “crypto asset securities” suggests that things are far more fluid than ominous legal language might indicate.&nbsp;



This editor is of the opinion that the march of time is the best instructor here. Wind back the clock to 2014/2015 and the prospects for a bitcoin ETF looked downright dire, nothing more than a waste of Winklevoss cash. Now <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-approves-cboe-nyse-options-btc-etfs">we’ve got options</a> on spot bitcoin and ether ETFs. Does that guarantee a solana ETF’s <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/future-crypto-etf-filings-in-limbo">success</a>? No, but nor does it spell a death sentence, neither.&nbsp;



Things are all just a little bit up in the air now, as they were — checking my calendar here —&nbsp;nearly a decade ago.



Earlier this year, <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/hester-peirce-advises-crypto-industry">the crypto-friendly</a> SEC Commissioner Hester Pearce acknowledged this reality, telling crypto outlet <a href="https://www.coinage.media/s3/sec-commissioner-peirce-weighs-in-on-solana-etf-applications">Coinage</a>: 



&#8220;This environment with crypto is so difficult, of course, because there are questions around what my colleagues and I are going to think is a security and not — there are all these kinds of questions. But again, we really should just take the existing precedent and apply it to whatever the facts and circumstances are.&#8221;



As with so much in crypto right now, next week’s election is likely to be the deciding factor here. Stay tuned, as they say.



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Once more into the SOL ETF breach

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<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



Even taking into account yesterday’s global market selloff, the “<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/btc-uptober-price-gains">Uptober</a>” framing, in the end, did not disappoint.&nbsp;



For the month, bitcoin was up about 11% to close at the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/btc-price-movements-etf-flows-surge">second-highest</a> monthly level ever. US bitcoin ETFs saw $2.28 billion in inflows this week (excluding today), capping off a month of roughly $5.63 billion entering the segment.



While it remains to be seen whether that capital is sticky or more of a temporary basis-driven trade, BTC bulls have nothing to complain about.



Heading into November and the US <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-industry-open-letter-trump-harris">election week</a>, short-term BTC options volatility has surged and inverted the term structure. Several commentators see it as echoing the trends in the run-up to the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-approves-bitcoin-etf">launch</a> of US spot bitcoin ETFs at the start of the year.



BTC futures open interest accelerated in October, showing steady demand amid election positioning.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">New testnets</h2>



Space and Time Labs launched the SXT Chain testnet at Chainlink SmartCon in Hong Kong. The move brings a zk-verifiable blockchain indexing platform for developers one step closer. SXT Chain, which uses the ZK Stack, enables decentralized, zk-proven data delivery to smart contracts and is expected to facilitate new possibilities, like onchain credit scoring.



Through what Space and Time calls “<a href="https://docs.spaceandtime.io/docs/proof-of-sql-overview">Proof of SQL</a>,” developers can query and verify data across chains, including Ethereum and ZKsync’s Elastic Chain ecosystem.



Also launching a testnet this week is =nil; Foundation, debuting its Ethereum L2 <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/ethereum-rollup-zksharding-nil-mainnet">powered by zkSharding</a>. Following a successful devnet debut, this release showcases protocol upgrades and a handful of dapps, such as Uniswap v2 demo DEX functionality in a sharded environment.



The zkSharding framework is one option for overcoming the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/nexus-liquidity-fragmentation">fragmentation</a> currently plaguing Ethereum L2s. It combines appchain scalability with monolithic composability, according to new CEO Avi Zurlo and co-founder Konstantin Lomashuk. Backed by Polychain and Blockchain Capital, =nil; is planning further testnets in 2025.



Nomic has launched its Babylon bitcoin staking on Ethereum testnet. Nomic offers a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/liquid-staked-bitcoin-yield-option-btc-holders">decentralized solution</a> for bitcoin staking via Babylon, allowing users to avoid centralized custodians. Bedrock’s uniBTC, a liquid staking token (LST) with over 2,000 BTC staked, will be among the first to adopt the protocol.



Mainnet and further EVM chain rollouts are planned for the coming months, pending the increase of Babylong deposit caps.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">A twist on the restaking airdrop?</h2>



Zircuit has <a href="https://x.com/ZircuitL2/status/1852041810714960054">launched</a> what it calls the “EIGEN fairdrop,” an airdrop of 2% of its total supply distributed equally among 190,000+ eligible EIGEN holders. The fairdrop, which is based on an Oct. 8 snapshot, will grant eligible participants who have at least 3 EIGEN tokens — excluding the EigenLayer team and investors — a share of the ZRC token distribution.



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Bitcoin bulls ride ‘Uptober’ wave, keep eye on November

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">subscribe</a>.



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Hold your horses.



While some folks around crypto think we could see the bullish rally take off after we get the election results, Empire’s Jason Yanowitz isn’t so sure.&nbsp;



In <a href="https://blockworks.co/podcast/empire/c556cabc-980a-11ef-a4a2-abb2c6578400">Friday’s Roundup</a>, he said that he doesn’t think we see the markets “rip” until potentially January or even February.&nbsp;



“There could be more uncertainty” in November and December, he added, pointing out that he thinks the election results could be close.



“Both sides are already prepping for an all-out war to contest the election,” Yanowitz said. Last election, it took the <a href="https://blog.ap.org/behind-the-news/calling-the-2020-presidential-race-state-by-state">Associated Press</a>, for example, until Saturday, Nov. 7 to declare a winner. If there’s uncertainty, then it puts the market certainty on the back burner, he pointed out.



And now you know.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Immutable has received a Wells notice from the SEC, the latest in their de facto policy of regulation by enforcement. We received this within hours of our first ever conversation, on a timeline clearly accelerated to land before an election. Sadly, stories like this are becoming…&mdash; Immutable (@Immutable) <a href="https://twitter.com/Immutable/status/1852093814112161932?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 31, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Exchanges, NFTs, and now…gaming.&nbsp;



Those are just some of the areas of crypto that’ve been targeted by the Securities and Exchange Commission.&nbsp;



Immutable, last night, said it was “frustrated” to disclose the receipt of a Wells notice from the SEC.&nbsp;



Now I know I’ve said this before, but a Wells notice doesn’t mean that a lawsuit is imminent, but it serves as a warning that an investigation has been conducted.&nbsp;



Admittedly, the lawsuit odds for crypto companies are pretty high, but I will point out that we’re still waiting for the other shoe to drop against both Robinhood and Uniswap after their respective Wells notices arrived last spring.



Immutable believes that the notice is targeting both the listing and private sales of its token, IMX, back in 2021. However, the notice doesn’t specify what the SEC is looking at.&nbsp;



“Prior to the issuance of a Wells notice, there are often multiple months of interviews and conversations between company counsel and the SEC, so the SEC can fully understand the situation. Instead, in our very first interaction with the SEC, we were told a Wells notice would be issued to the company within the week. We then received it within hours,” Immutable said. It further said that there were “fewer than 20 words of material explanation” about the investigation.



Whether or not the SEC is really pulling the punches right before the election is hard to assert, but one thing’s for certain: the SEC isn’t ready to turn down the heat on the crypto sector and we could continue to see more Wells notices and settlements into a potential bull market run.



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Explore the growing intersection between crypto, macroeconomics, policy and finance with Ben Strack, Casey Wagner and Felix Jauvin. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin">Subscribe to the Forward Guidance newsletter</a>.



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Election uncertainty may put market certainty on the back burner

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">subscribe</a>.



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They say the metaverse is dead, but it’s not so! It’s just that some are deader than others.



Social media platforms often operate in their own Bizarro Worlds. Boomer-brand conspiracies are hot on Facebook, street interviews are huge on Instagram and TikTok’s brain is hardwired for viral earworms spread via super-basic dance choreography.



X and Truth Social had much less in common when Trump launched the latter in February 2022, Trump initially formed Trump Media &amp; Technology Group one month after he was banned from Facebook and Twitter over the Capitol attack on Jan. 6.



Trump was quickly unbanned from Twitter following Musk’s buyout and rebranding to X, but Truth Social enjoyed at least nine months of carving out its own reality.&nbsp;



Helping delineate the two were the cavalcade of culture warriors who’d been banned by the former Twitter administration. They now had a cozy place on Truth Social, where they could mosey on from Gab and Parler.



That was years ago and X is a “freer” place than it was before. Still, DJT isn’t doing too poorly these days. You might’ve already heard that Trump Media &amp; Technology Group stock (DJT) could now be valued higher than X.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXe7z3s8DbyWPnmpzxOoxkoMAzyYIirKqpWKnXwjZCzfEas3UmfpMRdhkEhldY_etH-TxiOtHIsomEtAPETHbA9S3nIdu2ePitx5-v46P4WdOe6ocbWTRN96TCkY5K1EBEKITOfQBlqfcz1pFfD2afR-l0Y?key=Sy1Vkr5km8oTiyaLjtUz_taO" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">APE was launched after the stock, so it’s been moved ahead by three months to compensate</figcaption></figure>



That was indeed the case earlier this week, when DJT hit a new record high market cap of over $10 billion, having quadrupled its share price since bottoming out at the end of September.&nbsp;



Fidelity <a href="https://newsweek.com/donald-trumps-truth-social-now-worth-more-elon-musks-x-1976911">recently</a> valued X Holdings at $9.4 billion but DJT has since slipped to under $7.1 billion.



Here’s something you haven’t heard: Trump Media &amp; Technology Group stock and apecoin (APE) have experienced almost exactly the same market reaction.



The chart above plots APE, in blue, against Trump Media stock, in orange, which initially traded under DWAC in a SPAC-fueled IPO.



Notice that the two closely track each other — up until the first live demo of Yuga Labs’ BAYC metaverse, Otherside, in July 2022 (October on the chart), after which APE began to sink.



Trump Media meanwhile stock stabilized, before rocketing after Florida governor Ron DeSantis dropped out of the Republican nominee race in January. From there, it’s been a rocky ride.



Now, all we need is for apecoin to find its own DeSantis moment, and we’ve got a shot at getting the (actual) metaverses back on track.



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Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Subscribe to the Empire newsletter</a>.



Explore the growing intersection between crypto, macroeconomics, policy and finance with Ben Strack, Casey Wagner and Felix Jauvin. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin">Subscribe to the Forward Guidance newsletter</a>.



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What a metaverse coin and a Trump-linked stock have in common

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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One thing that is not spooky this Halloween is the latest PCE report, which showed prices increased as expected and annual inflation inched closer to the Fed’s 2% target.&nbsp;



So Powell probably isn’t having any nightmares tonight, or at least any inflation-related ones.&nbsp;



Prices increased by 0.2% month over month, according to the <a href="https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/personal-income-and-outlays-september-2024">PCE index</a> for September. Annual inflation for the 12 months ended September came in at 2.1%.&nbsp;



It’s the lowest annual rate since February 2021. August’s annual headline figure came in at 2.3% after an upward revision Thursday, so things are moving in the right direction.&nbsp;



Core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.3% in September and the annual rate is 2.7% — just a tad higher than analysts had expected, but flat from the reading we got in August.&nbsp;



The print did little to move the needle on rate cut expectations for November, with fed funds futures markets calling for a 95% chance of a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/forward-guidance-newsletter-interest-rate-cuts">25-basis point cut</a>, per CME Group <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html">data</a>. It’s a bit far out to speculate too much, but markets are less confident that central bankers will opt for another 25bps cut come December, pricing in a 72% likelihood. 



Remember, the latest FOMC projections show interest rates ending 2024 50bps lower than where they currently stand. But, as we’ve <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/forward-guidance-newsletter-economy-doing-fine">written about before</a>, investors have doubts the committee will follow through.



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Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Subscribe to the Empire newsletter</a>.



Explore the growing intersection between crypto, macroeconomics, policy and finance with Ben Strack, Casey Wagner and Felix Jauvin. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin">Subscribe to the Forward Guidance newsletter</a>.



Get alpha directly in your inbox with the <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/research">0xResearch newsletter</a> — market highlights, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, and more.



The Lightspeed newsletter is all things Solana, in your inbox, every day. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">Subscribe to daily Solana news</a> from Jack Kubinec and Jeff Albus.

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