David Canellis

Bitcoin is still down on 21-month highs set directly after the SEC <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-investigating-x-account-unauthorized-access">bungled its spot ETF announcement</a> on Tuesday. Ethereum, on the other hand, is way up.



Ether (<a href="https://blockworks.co/price/eth">ETH</a>) has rallied more than 16% in that time and is now easily the year-to-date best performing top-20 cryptocurrencies by market cap. Bitcoin (<a href="https://blockworks.co/price/btc">BTC</a>) is so far in second-place, with about half those returns.



Markets sold the news <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-approves-bitcoin-etf">one day early</a> due to the SEC’s unauthorized announcement and appear to have simultaneously bought the rumor on ether ETFs.



Ethereum Classic (<a href="https://blockworks.co/price/etc">ETC</a>) — the original Ethereum hard <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3014782">fork</a> in 25th position — is however having a moment. The blockchain’s native token ETC has spiked nearly 50% over the past day.



Due to the timing, there doesn’t appear to be any real rhyme or reason for ETC to be climbing so quickly.&nbsp;



The devil’s advocate would say that Ethereum Classic is gearing up for a hard fork later this month <a href="https://ethereumclassic.org/blog/2023-12-09-spiral-fork-announcement/">tipped</a> to better align the network’s EVM with Ethereum’s, which could help inspire projects to work with the chain.&nbsp;



And the network’s <a href="https://2miners.com/etc-network-hashrate">hashrate</a> did <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/ether-price-flat-after-merge-as-miners-hunt-for-hashrate-home">spike to all-time highs</a> following Ethereum’s switched to proof-of-stake in late 2022, as former ETH miners sought a substitute revenue stream at which to direct their GPU mining rigs.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-flourish wp-block-embed-flourish"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<iframe loading="lazy" class="wp-embedded-content" sandbox="allow-scripts" security="restricted" title="Interactive or visual content" src="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/16419617/embed#?secret=8oAaNABYv4" data-secret="8oAaNABYv4" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" height="575" width="700"></iframe>
</div><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Ether has jumped from $2,200 to $2,650 this week. Ethereum Classic has gone from $20 to $30.&nbsp;</figcaption></figure>



Much of Ethereum Classic’s post-Merge hashrate has stuck around, despite the network only seeing around 30,000 in transactions per day (about the baseline for Bitcoin Cash).&nbsp;



For scale, Litecoin is currently processing more than half a million transactions per day (boosted by the network&#8217;s own brand of <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/avalanche-ordinals-asc20-transaction-record">inscriptions</a>) while Ethereum mainnet handles about twice as much, per <a href="https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/litecoin-transactions.html#3y">BitInfoCharts</a>.



Still, Ethereum Classic only boasts less than 15% of Ethereum’s hashrate recorded just before the Merge.



ETHPoW, the hard fork of Ethereum from around the Merge meant to compete with Ethereum Classic, currently has about one-tenth of the latter’s hashrate.



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/grayscale-deciding-ethpow-future">Grayscale Still Deciding What To Do With ETHPoW</a>



In fact, until yesterday’s formal SEC approval of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds, ETC had returned nothing over the past year.&nbsp;



The more likely explanation is that traders are looking to frontrun the next big media narrative around crypto: the SEC approving spot bitcoin ETFs means an eventual greenlight for spot ether funds.&nbsp;



Due to illiquid markets, dumb money or widespread left-curving, Ethereum Classic has tagged along for the ride but ended up dominating ether for gains over the short-term.&nbsp;



Grayscale does already sell exposure to the token through one of its <a href="https://www.grayscale.com/crypto-products/grayscale-ethereum-classic-trust">trusts</a>, and the firm is now set to convert its $29 billion bitcoin trust into an ETF.



Some reckon fund issuers might soon seek approval for ETFs for other cryptocurrencies, including XRP and solana.



The odds of fund issuers lining up to launch ETFs for Ethereum Classic are slim. Although stranger things have happened in crypto.



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Ethereum ETF hype spills over to Ethereum Classic, leading to 50% pump

Sebastian Sinclair

Bitcoin has broken from a tight three-week range to clear $30,000 for the first time in 10 months.



BTC is now up more than 80% this year, having climbed from around $16,500 on Jan. 1 to&nbsp; $30,100 as of 3 am, ET. 



Crypto-focused financial services firm NYDIG found this year’s first quarter was Bitcoin’s fourth-best on record.



While past performance is not indicative of future results, a positive first quarter has been a “good omen” for bitcoin for the rest of the year, per NYDIG.



“Bitcoin has never had a down year after a positive first quarter and some of its best first quarters, like in 2011 and 2013, led to massive full-year returns,” the firm said.



Bitcoin has outperformed benchmark indexes across equities and commodities year to date — the S&amp;P 500 is up 7.5%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 has gained 20% while the GSCI is about flat.



Meanwhile, open <a href="https://www.coinglass.com/BitcoinOpenInterest" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">interest</a> for bitcoin futures is close to $12.9 billion, up 42% over the past month.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-flourish wp-block-embed-flourish"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<iframe loading="lazy" class="wp-embedded-content" sandbox="allow-scripts" security="restricted" title="Interactive or visual content" src="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/13371487/embed#?secret=zpj5O4qZNR" data-secret="zpj5O4qZNR" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" height="575" width="700"></iframe>
</div><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Bitcoin and ether are still catching up major benchmarks over the past year</figcaption></figure>



Still, outsized gains mirroring 2011’s 1,426% appreciation and 2013’s 5,428% jump are “unlikely” to happen again, NYDIG said.



James Lavish, managing partner at the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund, told Blockworks that recent performance appears to be correlated with macroeconomic developments in the US.



&#8220;I think the reason for bitcoin’s price move today are traders speculating that this week’s CPI number could come in at a level that gives the Federal Reserve reason to think about pausing raising rates in the next meeting.”



It comes as the percentage of bitcoin holders in unrealized profit hit its highest point in almost a year, according to <a href="https://twitter.com/glassnodealerts/status/1645505772615335937?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Glassnode</a>.



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Bitcoin Just Had Its 4th-best Quarter Ever — A ‘Good Omen’ For 2023

John Gilbert

People searched “bitcoin price” some 7.5 million times a month in 2022 — more than double the 3.4 million monthly estimate for “bitcoin” alone.&nbsp;



As crypto traders spent the last 12 months checking (or were unable to turn away from) the typically plummeting price of their digital assets, Cloudflare Radar tracked their behavior.&nbsp;



The firm found that eight of the top 10 crypto services visited in 2022 were either data pricing tools or exchanges. The only exceptions were NiceHash, a platform for buying and selling shares of the hash power behind bitcoin mining, and Etherscan, an Ethereum data-driven blockchain explorer.



Should the overwhelming obsession with price be a concern for crypto?&nbsp;



Industry critics say it’s yet more evidence that the asset class is all but a speculative bubble. The question, though, is really a debate of degrees. 



Every revolution in technology, like the rise of the internet, comes with a cycle of hype and speculation. The difference between the revolutions that succeed and fail is in the ratio of speculative to real demand. A closer look at Cloudflare’s data and adoption trends reveals that the demand behind these services goes beyond compulsive habit.&nbsp;



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">The most popular crypto services of 2022:</h3>



<ol class="wp-block-list">
<li>Binance</li>



<li>Coingecko</li>



<li>Coinbase</li>



<li>NiceHash</li>



<li>CoinMarketCap</li>



<li>OKX</li>



<li>Etherscan</li>



<li>Crypto.com</li>



<li>MEXC</li>



<li>Kucoin</li>
</ol>



Source: <a href="https://blog.cloudflare.com/radar-2022-year-in-review/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Cloudflare</a>



This ranking saw only one major— and unsurprising — disruption on the year. In November, FTX fell from the seventh spot to 21st place following its bankruptcy declaration. Rivals Binance and Coinbase did not lose any ground. Despite the shock, awe and, yes, headlines proclaiming the death of exchanges, they remained mostly dominant.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Binance and Coingecko, in fact, both made it into the top 10 ranking of financial services:



<ol class="wp-block-list">
<li>PayPal</li>



<li>Stripe</li>



<li>Alipay</li>



<li>TradingView</li>



<li>Google Pay</li>



<li>Binance</li>



<li>Intuit</li>



<li>Chase</li>
</ol>



Spots nine and 10 were considered a tie by Coingecko, with American Express, Bank of America Merrill Lynch and CompareCards jostling for those positions throughout November. 



Source: <a href="https://blog.cloudflare.com/radar-2022-year-in-review/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Cloudflare</a>&nbsp;



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Crypto adoption trends for 2022</h3>



Industry setbacks have not come close to erasing a decade of crypto adoption progress. Global adoption remains well above its pre-bull market 2019 levels, according to <a href="https://blog.chainalysis.com/reports/2022-global-crypto-adoption-index/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Chainalysis</a>.



Case in point: When bitcoin dropped to $20,000 (72% off its all-time high of $69,000) in the second quarter of 2022, the adoption index only slightly decreased, from 51% to 50% from its peak.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/WZ2KUEX7jjC_SMPI8uPuqdzV6km3XyHes9qQO5KFSe8TU6K79XE7otL_zIei-k4Milum2NQU-mp-QngpnTx2AxoOykt6moyLgLPcvANvzkyTKm051SLGmKZXKnImHolZnjGbJFURqOcQxTo_OEj8t6BrOlqZzWK2zyxcw43BgQNwcrVj9Zj5AIRnkI-VPQ" alt="Bitcoin's global adoption trend from 2019 to 2022"/></figure>



The rise of crypto adoption among emerging nations has been a driving force behind this resilience. The economies of 10 of the top 20 countries in <a href="https://blog.chainalysis.com/reports/2022-global-crypto-adoption-index/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Chainalysis</a>’ 2022 adoption ranking were dubbed “lower middle income,” the third lowest of four such designations (Indonesia, India, Kenya, Morocco, Nepal, Nigeria, Pakistan, The Philippines, Ukraine and Vietnam).



Only two were considered “high income” (US and The United Kingdom), and the remaining eight were categorized as “upper middle income” (Argentina, Brazil, China, Colombia, Ecuador, Russia, Thailand and Turkey).



Turkey booked record high inflation of 83% in 2022. Other countries in a similar position turned to cryptocurrencies to preserve purchasing power. According to SimilarWeb, Turkey was the top country sending desktop traffic to binance.com in November 2022.&nbsp;



And, in a recent <a href="https://wpdevshed.com/binance-statistics/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">survey</a>, 38% of Binance users cited a lack of confidence in their country’s existing currency and financial system as one of the main reasons for using the exchange.&nbsp;



This need to escape poor monetary policy may, in part, explain Binance’s user growth in 2022. The crypto exchange’s active monthly users <a href="https://www.binance.com/en/blog/futures/binance-futures-quarterly-report-q2-2022-5670445909238579513" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">increased</a> from 28 million in 2021 to 29 million in the second quarter of 2022.&nbsp;



That may seem minor, but it is nonetheless impressive, considering that the bear market has not been kind to retail-focused stock trading apps like Robinhood. The broker’s active users <a href="https://investors.robinhood.com/news/news-details/2022/Robinhood-Reports-Second-Quarter-2022-Results/default.aspx" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">decreased</a> from 22.5 million in 2021 to 14 million in the second quarter of 2022.&nbsp;



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Decentralization on the rise</h3>



Even though all featured exchanges are centralized, decentralized solutions, including DEXs, notched exponential growth following the FTX bankruptcy. <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/leeorshimron/2022/11/23/dexs-gain-market-share-as-faith-in-centralized-crypto-players-erodes/?sh=be840943f40b" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Trading volume</a> at decentralized exchanges (DEXs) reached $91 billion in November, a 79% month-over-month pop.&nbsp;



Consider that Uniswap on Nov. 14 booked more ether (ETH) trading volume than all other centralized exchanges, save Binance.



November was also a big month for decentralized social media platform Mastodon, whose active monthly users exploded from 300,000 to <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2022/12/20/23518325/mastodon-monthly-active-users-twitter-elon-musk" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">2.5 million</a>. Cloudflare&#8217;s rankings for popular internet services placed Mastodon at #200 in January, but it gradually improved throughout the year until reaching a turning point in November, climbing from #190 to #140.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/oH1pqOqMkPuDabX8Oj33RrBpHoE8ND0W2m0691Sxve7ZQx3qOQzlpx-yHzdgwwQ6AQAQ1iUaCNlzpscnbG89avC_BF3FSheU0i7xlIk8lWroZ1R_hW6kTQBUnm6_8UP2GxXFx9pKphqeMWzTi_tGUHxoOhqCrSxwTTp2ynWw0i7gD1ZTkZGh1fp4T60SGA" alt="Mastadon has rapidly gained market share from its centralized social media rivals "/></figure>



The timing of that growth corresponds to the time Elon Musk acquired Twitter. Some have speculated that the influx in users are from people protesting the new management and content policy standards.&nbsp;



The increase in popularity may also represent a larger trend toward more niche, independent online communities. This trend is represented in the rise in popularity of Facebook groups. They make up a majority of the platform&#8217;s user activity. In 2021, Facebook reported 1.8 billion people use its groups. And 77% of those surveyed said the most important group they belong to is online.&nbsp;



Mastodon is similar to Facebook groups in that users can create their own profiles, post and interact with one another — and join communities centered around specific topics or interests. But, unlike the tech giant, it is made up of a network of independent servers, or &#8220;instances,&#8221; that are run by individual users or organizations.



Each Mastodon instance is governed by its own administrator and has its own set of rules and policies, which can and do vary.&nbsp;



The decentralized and permissionless nature of the platform are not features that attract users wanting to protest the lack of content moderation on Twitter. These users could have easily chosen a centralized alternative like Discord, instead.&nbsp;



Discord, however, did <a href="https://pro.similarweb.com/#/digitalsuite/companyresearch/appanalysis/performance/0_com.discord/999/1m/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">not see a spike in users during</a> Musk’s acquisition of Twitter in December. The number of downloads <a href="https://pro.similarweb.com/#/digitalsuite/companyresearch/appanalysis/performance/0_com.discord/999/1m/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">decreased 5.79%</a> from October to November, and the number of <a href="https://pro.similarweb.com/#/digitalsuite/companyresearch/appanalysis/performance/0_com.discord/999/1m/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">daily users dropped 0.05%</a>.



Mastodon’s rise is better explained by the fact that it is meeting a specific market demand — one for an open source and decentralized version of Discord and Facebook groups. And while the platform has nothing to do with blockchain or crypto, it demonstrates there is ample opportunity for Web3 social platforms to grab market share.&nbsp;



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">The state of crypto apps&nbsp;</h3>



For all of crypto’s 2022 changes, some things have stayed the same.&nbsp;



Crypto’s adherents are still conditioned to chase euphoric highs. Decentralized application (dapp) and app developers alike are still tempted by that compulsive instinct to bake recursive and speculative tokenomics into their projects.&nbsp;



But the growth of Mastodon, DEXs, and cryptocurrencies abroad proves it’s no longer needed — if it ever was.&nbsp;



There is a real and growing hunger for genuine decentralization. The next generation of blockchain applications are poised to find new ways to rebrand the embattled industry — and maybe even shake the long running addiction to “number go up.”



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What 2022’s Hottest Crypto Apps Say About Where We’re Headed

Crypto analysts are predicting further turbulence for bitcoin and ether prices over the next nine months, as the industry picks up the pieces following the shock collapse of FTX.



Bitcoin and ether were trading at $16,800 and $1,260 as of 9 am ET, respectively, both down about 20% over the past week and 65% over the year to date.



Cryptocurrency’s total market capitalization has lost a similar amount. Digital assets have together shed $215 billion in nominal value since this time last week — before FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried’s <a href="https://cms.blockworks.co/news/binance-is-buying-ftx-a-timeline-of-events/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">apparent mishandling</a> of user funds came to light — sinking from $1.1 trillion to $885 million, now at nearly two-year lows.



Even if FTX finds its footing and gets bailed out by an entity willing to take on its debt, crypto markets are spooked, Daniel Kim, director of investments at Beijing-based FBG Capital told Blockworks in an interview.



Gun-to-head scenario: Kim believes markets are slated for further corrections, to as low as $13,000 for bitcoin and between $900 and $1,000 for ether. But it’s anybody’s guess, analysts argue. The FTX situation is ongoing, making it difficult to map exactly how much contagion risk exists in the ecosystem.



“There is a strong spotlight from regulators to monitor everything that&#8217;s going on and unfortunately a lot of institutions — both crypto and traditional — have been impacted,” Kim said.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Beyond bitcoin and ether, Solana&#8217;s DeFi ecosystem suffers</h3>



As for solana, the native token of the Bankman-Fried-backed <a href="https://cms.blockworks.co/news/solana-community-remains-bullish-despite-ftx-fallout/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">blockchain</a> of the same name, uncertainty in the DeFi sector will lead to further declines, Gracy Chen, managing director at crypto exchange Bitget told Blockworks.



So too goes for accompanying tokens, such as the one powering decentralized exchange platform Serum, which featured heavily in Alameda’s balance sheet leaked earlier this month.



Wrapped bitcoin and ether tokens on Solana have <a href="https://thedefiant.io/solana-btc-eth-depeg" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">depegged</a> entirely over the past two days, crashing more than 70% compared to their underlying assets BTC and ETH. FTX handled their collateral, having issued both assets for use within Solana&#8217;s DeFi ecosystem.



“For the projects invested by FTX Ventures and Alameda, there will be continuous selling pressure for tokens issued by these projects,” Chen said.&nbsp;



The rise of Solana and other similar blockchains seemed to settle a debate in the Web3 space, said Chris Georgen, founder of proof-of-stake blockchain Topl.&nbsp;



Decentralization didn&#8217;t matter; governance structure could mostly be ignored and deep investor pockets would determine the direction of the industry, Georgen said.



The meltdown of FTX and Alameda, primary checkbooks and hype engines behind much of Web3, will hopefully reopen this debate, Georgen said. 



“If we&#8217;re just going to use crypto tokens as a new asset to speculate on and accept the Web2 or traditional status quo (or worse) in terms of governance and decentralization, is the risk really worth it?” Georgen asked.



While the ramifications continue to play out, one thing is certain: Multiple legal battles are brewing with many past and present FTX customers unable to access their funds.



FTX’s Chapter 11 bankruptcy, filed on Friday, only adds confusion for its users, who are now effectively creditors. That, combined with what <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/12/ftx-says-it-is-investigating-unauthorized-transactions.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">appears</a> to be a hacking incident on the exchange’s remaining crypto, only seeds further angst.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Institutions could rebuild trust in crypto — eventually</h3>



There could also be stricter US regulation on the horizon, something which crypto diehards are instinctively averse. More regulation could shore up investor confidence and restore institutional engagement, however.



That would ultimately translate to higher prices, Jehan Chu, founder of Hong Kong-based trading and investment firm Kenetic. But until then it&#8217;s up to the market to hose down what was lit on fire by Bankman-Fried.



“Looming contagion among lenders, trading desks and hedge funds — more bodies will float to the surface in the coming weeks,” Chu said. The wreckage has quickly spilled over to crypto-related stocks, venture capital firms and even teacher’s funds in far-off Ontario, Canada.



Proper risk management and higher walls for retail participation, similar to what Singapore and Hong Kong have proposed in the past, will be needed as a guarantee of a more mature market, he added.



“Looking past 6-9 months of low volumes/liquidity, the next iteration will be led by blue-chip institutional players stepping in with fully-regulated platforms, proper risk management, and higher walls for retail participation.”



The analysts all agreed: None of this bodes well for an asset class that had barely recovered from the spectacular implosions of industry players such as Terra, Celsius and Voyager.



“I think the mass retail market and the traditional market are going to be on the sidelines for a while due to the lack of trust,” FBG Capital&#8217;s Kim said. “Unfortunately, FTX had some of the largest traditional names invest in them, including Tiger Capital and Temasek, which will leave a bad taste.”



David Canellis contributed reporting.



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Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Subscribe to the Empire newsletter</a>.



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