Sebastian Sinclair


<p>On-chain metrics are flashing signs of resiliency for the world’s largest digital asset, bitcoin (<a href="https://blockworks.co/price/btc">BTC</a>), as individuals continue to hold onto their coins in the face of broader market uncertainty.</p>



<p>The asset is into its fifth consecutive daily win, setting a fresh three-month high above $30,900, Blockworks data shows.</p>



<p>Total open interest for bitcoin options contracts across Bybit, Binance, OKX and Deribit has reached levels not seen for more than two months, at just over $6.46 billion.</p>



<p>Liquidations for BTC futures jumped to a total of $31.5 million on Sunday, <a href="https://www.coinglass.com/LiquidationData">CoinGlass</a> data shows. Even still, activity has remained relatively uneventful <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-etf-report-price-jump">compared</a> to last week’s Oct. 16’s $100 million wipeout on the false approval announcement of a US spot bitcoin ETF.</p>



<p>“While the ETF news was proven to be fake, there has been a clear shift in sentiment from ‘if’ to ‘when’ in terms of whether the SEC will approve any applications in the next few months,” Berkeley Cox, derivatives analyst at Zerocap told Blockworks.</p>



<p>This shift was further echoed in the options market on Sunday, where the 25 delta <a href="https://marketchameleon.com/Learn/Skew">skew</a> has tilted towards bullish territory, a position not observed since January&#8217;s surge, Cox noted.</p>



<p>Given the continued rise in front-end implied volatility (IV), long calendar options strategies may become increasingly appealing. Market participants are focusing on the prospect of ETF approval — or at the very least, a spike in volatility — by late December to early January, Cox said.</p>



<p>According to CryptoQuant’s Exchange Depositing Transactions for BTC, based on a seven-day moving average, total deposits to centralized platforms have fallen to their lowest levels since May 21, at just above 34,600 BTC.</p>



<p>The analytics firm believes a higher value indicates more individuals are willing to sell to the spot market while conversely, a dip lower indicates users are holding onto their coins and are expecting a future price rise.</p>



<p>“There seems to be no eminent selling pressure from long-term holders despite the $30,000 price tag,” a spokesperson for CryptoQuant told Blockworks.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">$27-30K BTC significant for crypto. Basically the 3AC/Luna liquidation level. Also roughly Saylors cost basis. Lose this level and its lights on</p>&mdash; Vance Spencer (@pythianism) <a href="https://twitter.com/pythianism/status/1716186123163025710?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 22, 2023</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



<p>Meanwhile, declining active addresses can point to participants seeking to hold onto the asset rather than utilize it as a medium of exchange or transfer it to exchanges during periods of profit-taking, Blockworks was <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-network-activity-price">previously told</a>.</p>



<p>The total number of active addresses when viewed over a seven-day average has dipped to the lowest point Since Dec. 28, data shows.</p>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



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Bitcoin’s move above $30K represents a ‘shift in sentiment,’ analysts say

Sam Martin

<div id="highlights-block_617725d07bf3f" class="highlights">
        <ul>
                <li>Bitcoin experienced intense volatility that coincided with the closing of CME futures markets</li>
                <li>AAVE, MKR and COMP battle it out for DeFi marketshare</li>
            </ul>
    
</div>



<p>Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a mini flash crash around 2:15 PM ET today but quickly recovered.</p>



<p>Perpetual funding rates remain an important metric to keep an eye on. </p>



<p>Some industry experts believe that the volatility can be attributed to the recently approved BTC ETF.</p>



<p>The borrowing and lending space in DeFi may be large enough for AAVE, COMP and MKR to all thrive. </p>



<p>Despite recent turbulence in the NFT space, there remains a lot of catalysts for price appreciation. </p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Latest in Macro:</strong></h3>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>S&amp;P 500: 4,596, +.98%</li><li>NASDAQ: 15,448, +1.39%</li><li>Gold: $1,799, +.03%</li><li>WTI Crude Oil: $83.06, +.48%</li><li>10-Year Treasury: 1.578%, +.049%</li></ul>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Latest in Crypto:</strong></h3>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>BTC: $60,972, +3.40%</li><li>ETH: $4,264, +6.38%</li><li>ETH/BTC: .0700, +4.31%</li><li>BTC.D: 44.65%, -.84%</li></ul>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">BTC liquidation cascade</h3>



<p>Bitcoin experienced an intense period of volatility today around 2:15 PM ET, with the BTC price falling as low as $57,653 before quickly recovering. There was a strong rally in the middle of last night from $58,000 up to nearly $62,000 right before the sell-off.</p>



<p>It appears speculators got too excited too quickly, as perpetual funding rates were racing higher as the price action traded in a range right before the sell-off. </p>



<p>&#8220;The funding rate is derived from the difference between the market price of perpetuals and the spot index it’s anchored to. Excessive buying of perps increases the spread between perp price and the spot index, causing funding to go up. Conversely, negative funding is incited by an influx of perp shorting, forcing the contract’s price to fall lower than spot prices,&#8221; <a href="https://members.delphidigital.io/reports/leverage-wipes-out-but-is-the-worst-behind-us/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">wrote</a> Ashwath Balakrishnan of Delphi Digital.</p>



<p>He continued, &#8220;For funding to fall lower, one of two things needs to happen: either existing longs get shaken out and are forced to cover, or there’s an increase in bearish sentiment prompting traders to go net short. Either way, it’s unclear whether we’ve found a local bottom yet.&#8221;</p>



<p>As seen in the following chart, open interest weighted funding rates raced higher prior to the dip in price. Unfortunately, traders began getting aggressive quickly after the correction which signals additional caution may be appropriate. </p>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="683" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/oi-weighted-funding-rate-2-1024x683.jpeg" alt="" class="wp-image-10064" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/oi-weighted-funding-rate-2-1024x683.jpeg?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/oi-weighted-funding-rate-2-1024x683.jpeg?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/oi-weighted-funding-rate-2-1024x683.jpeg?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/oi-weighted-funding-rate-2-1024x683.jpeg?w=386 386w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/oi-weighted-funding-rate-2-1024x683.jpeg?w=392 392w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/oi-weighted-funding-rate-2-1024x683.jpeg?w=329 329w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/oi-weighted-funding-rate-2-1024x683.jpeg?w=80 80w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/oi-weighted-funding-rate-2-1024x683.jpeg?w=1200 1200w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption>Source: Laevitas.ch</figcaption></figure>



<p>According to Skew, roughly $32 million worth of futures positions were liquidated in just a 10-minute window. </p>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="869" height="333" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Screen-Shot-2021-10-28-at-4.00.35-PM.png" alt="" class="wp-image-10060" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Screen-Shot-2021-10-28-at-4.00.35-PM.png?w=869 869w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Screen-Shot-2021-10-28-at-4.00.35-PM.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Screen-Shot-2021-10-28-at-4.00.35-PM.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Screen-Shot-2021-10-28-at-4.00.35-PM.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Screen-Shot-2021-10-28-at-4.00.35-PM.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Screen-Shot-2021-10-28-at-4.00.35-PM.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Screen-Shot-2021-10-28-at-4.00.35-PM.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 869px) 100vw, 869px" /><figcaption>Source: Skew.com</figcaption></figure>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Are BTC ETFs to blame?</h3>



<p>Some industry experts believe that the volatility can be attributed to the recently <a href="https://cms.blockworks.co/first-bitcoin-futures-etf-nears-1b-on-first-day-of-trading/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">approved</a> BTC ETF, which is backed by leveraged positions in the form of cash-settled futures contracts. </p>



<p>Caitlin Long, 22-year Wall Street Veteran and founder of Avanti, took to Twitter to share her thoughts:</p>



<figure class="wp-block-embed aligncenter is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">ANOTHER LEVERAGED SLAMDOWN in <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/bitcoin?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#bitcoin</a> trading mkts today. Again, this is the type of foreseeable event that happens with the bad kind of financialization (the leveraged kind). It increases the cost of capital for the whole sector. smh <a href="https://t.co/hC1sbEtiXx">https://t.co/hC1sbEtiXx</a></p>&mdash; Caitlin Long 🔑⚡️🟠 (@CaitlinLong_) <a href="https://twitter.com/CaitlinLong_/status/1453807532443455488?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 28, 2021</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



<p>It is unclear if the added leverage via ETF approvals to the BTC ecosystem is to blame for the volatility in price.</p>



<p>It is worth noting, however, that the CME only accounts for roughly 20% of aggregated futures open interest albeit a growing portion. This is significant to add because the CME is where all of the futures are being traded that back the aforementioned ETFs. </p>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="572" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/skew_btc_futures__aggregated_open_interest-1024x572.png" alt="" class="wp-image-10067" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/skew_btc_futures__aggregated_open_interest-1024x572.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/skew_btc_futures__aggregated_open_interest-1024x572.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/skew_btc_futures__aggregated_open_interest-1024x572.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/skew_btc_futures__aggregated_open_interest-1024x572.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/skew_btc_futures__aggregated_open_interest-1024x572.png?w=467 467w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/skew_btc_futures__aggregated_open_interest-1024x572.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/skew_btc_futures__aggregated_open_interest-1024x572.png?w=80 80w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/skew_btc_futures__aggregated_open_interest-1024x572.png?w=1200 1200w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption>Source: Skew.com</figcaption></figure>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Aave, Compound and MakerDAO battle it out for marketshare</h3>



<p>Aave (AAVE) and Compound (COMP) facilitate peer-to-peer borrowing and lending. Liquidity providers (LPs/lenders) earn interest for their services, while borrowers pay interest on top of their loans to pay the LPs. </p>



<p>MakerDAO (MKR) allows users to take out loans by locking up digital assets as collateral in return for a decentralized stablecoin, DAI. However, borrowers need to be attentive to their loan-to-collateral ratio as asset prices fluctuate in order to avoid having their collateral liquidated. </p>



<p>AAVE, COMP and MKR all compete for users&#8217; appetites to take on leverage via borrowing. However, when it comes to lending it is really just AAVE and COMP battling for market share because they have peer-to-peer ecosystems versus MKR&#8217;s collateralized debt position (CDP) model. </p>



<p>AAVE currently leads based on total valued locked (TVL) in its platform, followed by MKR at third and COMP at seventh: </p>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1001" height="379" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Screen-Shot-2021-10-28-at-5.14.40-PM.png" alt="" class="wp-image-10074" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Screen-Shot-2021-10-28-at-5.14.40-PM.png?w=1001 1001w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Screen-Shot-2021-10-28-at-5.14.40-PM.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Screen-Shot-2021-10-28-at-5.14.40-PM.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Screen-Shot-2021-10-28-at-5.14.40-PM.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Screen-Shot-2021-10-28-at-5.14.40-PM.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Screen-Shot-2021-10-28-at-5.14.40-PM.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Screen-Shot-2021-10-28-at-5.14.40-PM.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1001px) 100vw, 1001px" /><figcaption>Source: DefiLlama</figcaption></figure>



<p>According to the following Dune Analytics dashboard, the percentage of market participants interacting with COMP has remained consistent since mid-2020, whereas AAVE has stolen a lot of marketshare away from MKR. </p>



<p>COMP and MKR each hold a 25% market share of active addresses versus AAVE with 50%. </p>



<div class="wp-block-image"><figure class="aligncenter size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="625" height="281" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Screen-Shot-2021-10-28-at-5.21.24-PM.png" alt="" class="wp-image-10076" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Screen-Shot-2021-10-28-at-5.21.24-PM.png?w=625 625w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Screen-Shot-2021-10-28-at-5.21.24-PM.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Screen-Shot-2021-10-28-at-5.21.24-PM.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Screen-Shot-2021-10-28-at-5.21.24-PM.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Screen-Shot-2021-10-28-at-5.21.24-PM.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Screen-Shot-2021-10-28-at-5.21.24-PM.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 625px) 100vw, 625px" /></figure></div>



<p>However, the picture looks a lot different when looking at the market share of loans outstanding per project. AAVE leads with a 35.7% market share, with MKR in 2nd with 34.5%, and COMP in last with 29.9%. </p>



<p>This implies that while there are fewer active addresses on MKR taking out loans, they are players with very big pockets and trust the stablecoin, Dai, is a pristine asset.</p>



<div class="wp-block-image"><figure class="aligncenter size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="410" height="318" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Screen-Shot-2021-10-28-at-5.27.46-PM.png" alt="" class="wp-image-10077" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Screen-Shot-2021-10-28-at-5.27.46-PM.png?w=410 410w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Screen-Shot-2021-10-28-at-5.27.46-PM.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Screen-Shot-2021-10-28-at-5.27.46-PM.png?w=331 331w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Screen-Shot-2021-10-28-at-5.27.46-PM.png?w=337 337w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Screen-Shot-2021-10-28-at-5.27.46-PM.png?w=282 282w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Screen-Shot-2021-10-28-at-5.27.46-PM.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 410px) 100vw, 410px" /></figure></div>



<p>With roughly $80 billion of loans outstanding between the three protocols and only 3.5 million DeFi users, the total addressable market and growth run way is extremely large. Only time will tell if all three protocols can thrive side by side.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs)</h3>



<figure class="wp-block-embed aligncenter is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">&#8211; Twitter is implementing NFTs<br>&#8211; Coinbase is building an NFT marketplace<br>&#8211; Facebook is all in on Metaverse<br>&#8211; GameStop is building an NFT marketplace<br>&#8211; Nike working on NFT verification of shoes<br>&#8211; Warner Bros looking to release music NFTs<br><br>Heck yeah I&#39;m bullish</p>&mdash; Cobble ᵍᵐ (@cobble) <a href="https://twitter.com/cobble/status/1453692007046647810?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 28, 2021</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



<p>Trading data from <a href="https://opensea.io/rankings" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">OpenSea</a> and <a href="https://solanalysis.com" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Solanalysis</a> of some of the top Solana and Ethereum projects can be found in the photos below:</p>



<div class="wp-block-image"><figure class="aligncenter size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="331" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Screen-Shot-2021-10-28-at-5.44.13-PM-1024x331.png" alt="" class="wp-image-10078" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Screen-Shot-2021-10-28-at-5.44.13-PM-1024x331.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Screen-Shot-2021-10-28-at-5.44.13-PM-1024x331.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Screen-Shot-2021-10-28-at-5.44.13-PM-1024x331.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Screen-Shot-2021-10-28-at-5.44.13-PM-1024x331.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Screen-Shot-2021-10-28-at-5.44.13-PM-1024x331.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Screen-Shot-2021-10-28-at-5.44.13-PM-1024x331.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Screen-Shot-2021-10-28-at-5.44.13-PM-1024x331.png?w=80 80w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Screen-Shot-2021-10-28-at-5.44.13-PM-1024x331.png?w=1234 1234w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption>Top Ethereum Projects</figcaption></figure></div>



<div class="wp-block-image"><figure class="aligncenter size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="282" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Screen-Shot-2021-10-28-at-5.43.56-PM-1024x282.png" alt="" class="wp-image-10079" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Screen-Shot-2021-10-28-at-5.43.56-PM-1024x282.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Screen-Shot-2021-10-28-at-5.43.56-PM-1024x282.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Screen-Shot-2021-10-28-at-5.43.56-PM-1024x282.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Screen-Shot-2021-10-28-at-5.43.56-PM-1024x282.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Screen-Shot-2021-10-28-at-5.43.56-PM-1024x282.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Screen-Shot-2021-10-28-at-5.43.56-PM-1024x282.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Screen-Shot-2021-10-28-at-5.43.56-PM-1024x282.png?w=80 80w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Screen-Shot-2021-10-28-at-5.43.56-PM-1024x282.png?w=1208 1208w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption>Top Solana Projects </figcaption></figure></div>



<p>If you made it this far, thanks for reading! Looking forward to catching up tomorrow.</p>



<hr class="wp-block-separator"/>



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